A methodology for estimating expected usage of repair parts with application to parts with no usage history

In this paper a model is presented which focuses on the difficult problem of predicting demands for items with extremely low usage rates. These form the bulk of repair parts in military systems. The basic notion underlying the model is the pooling of usage data for common design items with movement for the purpose of estimating usage rates for similar items which have shown no movement. A unique feature of the model is that it also makes possible the estimation of usage rates for items newly introduced into a system for which no previous usage history is available.     

Values for optimum reject allowances

Industrial situations exist where it is necessary to estimate the optimum number of parts to start through a manufacturing process in order to obtain a given number of completed good items. The solution to this problem is not straightforward when the expected number of rejects from the process is a random variable and when there are alternative penalties associated with producing too many or too few items. This paper discusses various aspects of this problem as well as some of the proposed solutions to it. In addition, tables of optimum reject allowances based on a comprehensive model are presented.     

The formulation of some allocation and connection problems as integer programs

In this paper a component placement problem and a digital computer backboard wiring problem are formulated as integer linear programs. The component placement problem consists of making a unique assignment of components to column positions such that wireability is maximized. The backboard wiring problem consists of three interrelated subproblems, namely, the placement, the connection, and the routing problems. The placement and connection problems are combined and solved as one, thereby giving the optimal circuit connections as well as minimizing the total lead length. It is shown that under certain assumptions, the number of inequalities and variables in the problem can be greatly reduced. Further simplifying assumptions lead to a near optimal solution. Examples of other allocation problems to which the models presented here are applicable are given. The following concepts are formulated as linear inequalities: (1) the absolute magnitude of the difference between two variables; (2) minimize the minimum function of a set of functions; and (3) counting the number of (0, 1) adjacent component pairs in a vector.     

Minimum-cost flows in convex-cost networks

An algorithm is given for solving minimum-cost flow problems where the shipping cost over an arc is a convex function of the number of units shipped along that arc. This provides a unified way of looking at many seemingly unrelated problems in different areas. In particular, it is shown how problems associated with electrical networks, with increasing the capacity of a network under a fixed budget, with Laplace equations, and with the Max-Flow Min-Cut Theorem may all be formulated into minimum-cost flow problems in convex-cost networks.     

Allocation of resources to randomly occurring opportunities

An allocation problem is considered in lvhich different kinds of resources must be allocated to various activities, within a given time period. The opportunities for allo'cation appear randomly during this period. Certain assumptions about the values of possible allocations and the distribution of occurrences of opportunities lead to a dynamic programming formulation of the problem. This leads to a system of ordinary differential equations which are (in theory) solvable recursively, and can be solved numerically to any desired degree of precision. An example is given for the allocation of aircraft-carried weapons to targets of opportunity.     

A comparison of usage data among types of aircraft

It has long been an accepted proposition that base level usage df technical repair items for aircraft is related to program elements. The program element most often cited in this connection is flying hours. Evidence of this relationship on a line item basis, however, has been sparse. This study suggests that although the supposed relation is intuitively plausible, for most line items it cannot be effectively utilized in projecting base level requirements. The basis of this conclusion is an analysis of demand characteristics for technical repair items for a variety of naval aircraft.     

On some stocxastic tactical antisubmarine games

Mathematical models of tactical problems in Hntisubmarine Warfare (ASW) are developed. Specifically, a game of pursuit between a hunter-killer force. player 1, and a possible submarine, player 2 is considered. The game consists of a sequence of moves and terminates when player 2 is tcaught or evades player 1. When the players move they observe the actual tactical configuration of the forces (state) and each player choosa-s a tactical plan from a finite collection. This joint choice of tactical plans determines an immediate payoff and a transition probability distribution over the states. Hence an expected payoff function is defined, Formally this game is a Terminating Stochastic Game (TSG). Shapley demonstrated the existence of a value and optimal strategies (solution), An iterative technique to approximate the solution to within desired accuracy is proposed. Each iteration of the technique is obtained by solving a set of linear programs. To introduce more realism into the game several variations of the TSG are also considered. One variation is a finite TSG and linear programming techniques are employed to find the solution.